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True Northern winter forecast
Normal temperatures expected after last year's unusually warm, dry season, says climatologist

Laura Busch
Northern News Services
Published Friday, November 23, 2012

SOMBA K'E/YELLOWKNIFE
Yellowknifers can expect a classic Northern winter this year for a change, according to weather experts.

NNSL photo/graphic

Not everyone is saddened by the cold, clear weather that Yellowknife has been receiving lately. While clear skies tends to mean colder weather, it also means more sunshine. Here Missie Topilikon, 11, left, and Dawson Chawelos, 11, enjoy playing in the snow at Stanton Village on Sunday. - Simon Whitehouse/NNSL photo

"Compared to last year, it will feel like a brutal winter," said David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada.

Last winter was the third warmest in the last 65 years, with average temperatures up a "whopping 5.5 C," said Phillips.

While there are normally 55 days below -30 C in the Yellowknife area, last winter there were only 21 days where temperatures dipped below this threshold. It was also the ninth driest winter on record, with precipitation down about 20 per cent.

"In many ways, I think we could say that winter was almost cancelled in the NWT last year," said Phillips. "We just don't think that nature is capable of producing two non-winters in a row."

Phillips attributes the warming trend to global climate change. Canada's Northwest region is the area most affected by climate change in the world, he said.

While the country as a whole has warmed an average of 3 C in the last 65 years, the NWT has warmed about 5 C during the same period.

"It's not like you have to be convinced (about climate change), you can just look out your window," he said. "It has a significant impact. It's not just a curiosity, it's not just a scientific fact, it's having affects on people, places and things."

So far, this winter is delivering more normal temperatures, Phillips said.

As of Monday, November had brought standard weather to the capital city, with an average temperature of -13.6 C, 10 days of below -20 C and 20 cm of snow. The average temperature for November is -13.8 C, with seven days where thermometers dip below -20 C and 21 cm of snow, said Phillips.

Since there is still a week left in the month, Phillips expects that November 2012 could end up being colder than average because clear skies and cold temperatures are forecast for the rest of the month.

While the cold temperatures may not be welcomed by all, a return to seasonal normals is a good thing for the North.

Weather conditions during freeze-up were ideal for ice building, said Dave Abernethy, member of the Great Slave Snowmobile Club. Cold temperatures allowed the ice to freeze and thicken before it is covered with heavy snowfall, which normally leads to good ice formation.

Although Abernethy hasn't hit the trails yet this winter, he said he is looking forward to getting out as early as this coming weekend.

"There's no need to push the season," Abernethy said. "People still need to exercise caution."

The snowmobile club measures ice thickness for the City of Yellowknife until all ice levels reach at least six inches, the recommended thickness for safe walking, skiing and snowmobiling. Club president Bruce Hewlko said ice thickness has been average this year. The club completed its last measurements on Saturday, Nov. 17, when all ice levels were measured between eight and 11 inches. Last winter, ice measurements were wrapped up by Nov. 19 while the year before all ice in the area measured more than six inches by Nov. 20, said Hewlko.

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