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HIGH ARCTIC
Ice in Frobisher Bay and Cumberland Sound in August? One ocean scientist says you can blame that on ice islands breaking off the Petermann Fjord in northern Greenland, and such conditions will continue for at least the next few years.

A 130-square-kilometre ice island broke off the Petermann Glacier July 16, and one scientist expects it will cause shipping problems for a few years. The Canadian Coast Guard Ship Henry Larson, an icebreaker, is seen at bottom. - photo courtesy of Canadian Coast Guard

"That's the ice that's being flushed out of the Arctic," said Andreas Muenchow, a University of Delaware associate professor of physical ocean science and engineering, during a stop in Iqaluit after visiting the fjord aboard the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker Henry Larsen. "That's the effect of the Arctic losing its heavy multi-year ice."

Muenchow was referring to ice chunks six to 10 metres in height seen in Frobisher Bay during his mid-August visit, a month after a 130-square-kilometre ice island broke away from the Petermann Glacier. This year's ice jam consists of pieces of a 280-square-kilometre ice island that broke away in 2010. Ice islands are, unlike smaller icebergs, flat and tabular in appearance, stretching out many square kilometres.

"The hard, thick, old ice in the Arctic is disappearing," he said. "It's shrinking at a dramatic rate. What you're seeing right now here (in Iqaluit) is changes that happened upstream two or three years ago. If an ice island breaks off the Petermann Fjord now, two, three or four years from now, that's the ice you will have here. You will have more thick, heavy ice for the next three, four, five years."

Muenchow has spent a good chunk of his career studying the Petermann Glacier, which discharges about six per cent of the Greenland ice sheet, he said. Since humans first recorded the size of the glacier in 1870, the glacier – which used to extend 80 to 100 km into the fjord – has lost at least a quarter of its in-water mass.

In Pond Inlet, Mittimatalik Hunters and Trappers Association manager Joshua Arreak said residents have noticed gradual changes.

"In the last few years, it's been thinner, people have noticed," Arreak said. "The ice breakup is a little earlier than in the past. Once the sea ice was gone (this spring), another pack of ice came in. Most people said it came from Lancaster Sound."

Remnants of the 2010 island can be found in Lancaster Sound, Cumberland Sound, and off the coast of Baffin Island, he said. But this year, there is more ice in Frobisher Bay than in Lancaster Sound near Resolute.

"The ice in the Arctic is changing rapidly before our eyes," Muenchow said. "New ice, multi-year ice, Greenland icebergs (calved every year), and ice islands are more mobile and are being flushed south."

Ice islands, if they continue to form, are a concern for the Arctic environment not only because of what they indicate about climate change. Their mass and size pose risks for rigid offshore oil rigs, which the governments of Nunavut and Greenland seem keen to see develop.

"There's a reason that the Canadian Ice Service is closely monitoring where they go," Muenchow said. "They have the potential of affecting offshore oil exploration that's happening in the Grand Banks. If offshore oil development happens in the Davis Strait, there is more of a risk of an impact. The further north you go toward the source of these ice islands, the more likely an impact or strike."

Warmer Arctic temperatures mean a decrease in multi-year ice, which has survived at least one summer. The loss of ice may open opportunities for shipping through the Northwest Passage, and the newly formed ice may be easier for icebreakers to break through, but Muenchow warns the combination can cause problems.

"Less ice in the Canadian Arctic does not mean open shipping channels will be open a week later," he said. "Just because Lancaster Sound is open, that does not mean that two or five days later, that tanker couldn't be surrounded by ice just because the wind changed direction. It may make it harder to predict when the ice will be where. There's plenty of ice and there always will be. It may give a false sense of security to people who want to develop and want to ship."

Environment Canada spokesperson Mark Johnson said the ice islands are a concern.

"Now that the ice island has entered Nares Strait, there is an increased risk that it will break into several fragments," Johnson said. "The large ice island in 2010 broke in two when it hit Joe Island. The 2012 ice island will enter Baffin Bay before freeze-up this fall, where some shipping might still be taking place, creating an additional hazard for these vessels."

He said his department will drop a transmitting beacon on the ice island to track its progress through the Nares Strait, between Ellesmere Island and Greenland. Scientists expect it should reach Baffin Bay before the fall freeze-up, and Johnson said it currently remains the same size as when it calved.

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