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SOMBA K'E/YELLOWKNIFE
Don't skimp on the winter gear if you plan to stay warm this year. Environment Canada is predicting a colder-than-average season for the Yellowknife area.

If current Environment Canada projections are correct, Yellowknifers are in for a long, cold winter. This could make scenes like this one looking out over Frame Lake from Somba K'e Civic Plaza look positively tropical. - Laura Busch/NNSL photo

"I'm feeling a little chilled right now looking at this, but I'm trying to remain optimistic," said Yvonne Bilan-Wallace, meteorologist with Environment Canada.

"Historically though, in the last 10 to 15 years, we haven't really been seeing one of those really bitterly cold winters in the NWT."

The mild winters of the recent past are attributed to a global-warming trend. This would suggest that the coming winter may end up being more mild than is being predicted.

"I mean, we know that the temperatures have been slowly going up, especially in the winter time in the NWT," said Bilan-Wallace. "It looks really ominous and blue (on the long-range forecasting models), but I think it's a little less blue than it's showing."

According to another chart showing the probability of having a colder-than-average winter throughout the country, Yellowknife has a 60- to 70-per-cent chance of being unusually cold between December 2011 and February 2012. Parts of the country that will see thermostats dip the most below what they are used to are the west coast and the Prairies.

"The focus on the below normals really is over B.C. and over Alberta and then it kind of spills over into the NWT," said Bilan-Wallace. "And that's kind of what was happening last year. You were, at times, a lot more pleasant than (in the Prairies)."

"Right now, the models are forecasting kind of a deep freeze – at least in the southern part of the NWT," said Bilan-Wallace, who added that as one moves further north toward the Beaufort Delta, it's moderated somewhat."

On the brighter side, Bilan-Wallace said these forecast charts have often been proven wrong in the past. "The accuracy (of these maps) is not great. But it has been trending on the cold side for a number of (months) now," she said.

While cooler temperatures mean more layers are required to brave the great outdoors during the long NWT winter, a cold-snap early in the season could help make good ice that in turn makes for good sporting during the rest of the season, outdoor enthusiasts say.

"The reality (of having good snowmobile riding conditions) is that having enough snow is one thing but having enough ice is another. I'd say about half of the riding would be over ice," said Ken Pearman, member of the Great Slave Snowmobile Association.

Pearman is getting excited for the coming season, and has already been out running his machine. Having good ice is especially important for Pearman because he is an avid snowmobile racer as opposed to trail rider – and the majority of racing tracks are over ice.

"Usually (snowmobile riding starts) around the 10th of December. It's generally safe depending on the year and whether there's enough ice and enough snow," he said.

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