SOMBA K'E/YELLOWKNIFE
A recent NWT Chamber of Commerce report presents a gloomy outlook for the next economic year, but some local businesses aren't so sure.

Bijou Boutique owner Jill Groenewegen is skeptical about the statistics from the NWT Chamber of Commerce that predicts a downturn for local business in the next year. - NNSL file photo

The chamber found that 65.38 per cent of those polled believe the NWT economy will decline in the next 12 months. Another 52.88 per cent thought the economy would continue to decline for the next 36 months, into 2019.

NWT Chamber of Commerce executive director Mike Bradshaw says where this will be most visible is small and medium sized businesses.

"The mining industry is the backbone of the economy, but (small and medium-sized businesses) are the heartbeat," he said.

According to NWT chamber statistics, the number of small and medium-sized businesses in the territory have declined by 32 per cent since 2011.

"You don't have to convince anybody here of that, all you have to do is walk through the mall," said Bradshaw.

He said this decline and lack of confidence in the economy translates into a chamber prediction that hiring intentions will flatline for the third year in a row. This prediction is supported by a finding in the report that 57.69 per cent of those polled were going to keep employee levels the same.

But not everyone feels so bleak. Jill Groenewegen opened Bijou Boutique three years ago. She said business has been steady, and doesn't anticipate it dropping off this year.

Although she has seen some downtown businesses shut down, she said many did so for reasons that shouldn't be cause for alarm - like retirement, or relocation.

"I just feel like in Yellowknife people just keep talking about how bad it is," she said. "I don't know how much truth there is to that."

Community has its ups and downs

Yellowknife Book Cellar owner Judith Drinnan agrees. She's been open for business for over 30 years. "The community has its ups and downs and the bookstore goes on being pretty level," she said.

Both say they don't intend to expand their hiring much this year - but that that's normal. Drinnan said she hasn't changed the amount of staff she retains for a long time.

"I have the same number of staff as I've had for probably the last 10 years," she said.

Groenewegen said she's also not looking to increase her staff, but that's a matter of logistics, not an economic indicator.

"There's only so many people you can have working in a store at one time," she said.

Statistics Canada reported in July the Northwest Territories has one of the highest employment rates in Canada, at 70.9 per cent, second only to the Yukon and beating the national average of 62 per cent. The NWT Bureau of Statistics reports that between July 2015 and July 2016, employment in the Northwest Territories has increased by 2.7 per cent.

Even though employment is on the rise, Bradshaw said shuttering businesses are still cause for concern.

"You know on the surface, you're right, there's high employment but that's in Yellowknife. Outside Yellowknife the unemployment rate is more like 28 per cent," he said. "Our economy has always been resource based and we're driving resource investors away because our regulatory regime creates a degree of uncertainty that investors don't have to face elsewhere."

Northern Territories Federation of Labour president Alexander Lambrecht doesn't buy the doom-and-gloom forecast.

"I can see where the chamber of commerce is coming from - and when you look at the statistics, the data, the information that's out there, I think there's some truth in that certain industries within the Northern economy are going to see a decline," he said. "But other ones that are a little bit more stable ... they're not going to be as affected as maybe the chamber of commerce makes it out to say."

The sample size for the chamber of commerce study was 104 people, which Bradshaw said is "fairly good."

But Lambrecht says the small sample size means the statistics need to be taken with a grain of salt.

"I find the sample size in the North can be challenging," he said, adding that getting a clear picture on what people really think can be tricky - especially when opinions can change depending on how long a person has been the North.

Regardless, Bradshaw says uncertainty can translate into less disposable income going back into the community.

But Groenewegen points to the statistics themselves as possibly being a self-fulfilling prophecy.

"That's not really encouraging to more people to open more businesses either," she said.

"Maybe like a little bit of the power of positive thinking here, people."

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