IQALUIT
The chances of the Northwest Passage becoming a major shipping route due to melting sea ice are miniscule, but that doesn't mean the Canadian Arctic should be ignored, says one expert.

The Royal Research Ship Ernest Shackleton has been chartered to accompany the Crystal Serenity on its voyage through the Northwest Passage from Seward, Alaska, to New York City in late August. - photo courtesy of Brian Burnell

Hugh Stephens, author of The Opening of the Northern Sea Routes: The Implications for Global Shipping and for Canada's Relations with Asia, a report released May 17, has more than 35 years of government and business experience in the Asia-Pacific region. The report was published by the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy.

He spoke to Nunavut News/North from his home in British Columbia.

"As I got into it - the initial flush of enthusiasm - there's going to be container ships coming from Rotterdam to Shanghai through the Northwest Passage any time now because of the melting sea ice ... Which was easy to find lots of stuff on but the more you drove down the more you realized that a lot of that stuff was just speculation, frankly."

The centuries-old dream of a trade route remains mostly unattainable and likely will for the foreseeable future - a period of 20 to 25 years or more, asserts Stephens.

"The advantages are so relatively insignificant to the large number of disadvantages, it's pretty hard to conclude that this is going to be a game-changer."

The main advantage is a shorter route - depending on ports of choice the route can be shorter than the Suez or Panama canals, which are both currently being expanded, by 3,500 to 7,500 km.

Among the disadvantages listed by Stephens are: "unpredictability of ice conditions at different times of the year and from year to year, inadequate charts, shallow drafts on some routes, lack of icebreaking capacity, difficulties in obtaining maritime insurance, weak or non-existent search and rescue infrastructure in Canada's North, world trade and shipping trends, lower fuel costs, etc. The general decline in global trade and shipping is an important factor making a risky, unpredictable route an unlikely choice."

However, the People's Republic of China, which is the world's top exporter of containersized cargo, according to the World Shipping Council, announced in early April it will be taking advantage of the Northwest Passage as it opens up to marine shipping.

According to the state-run China Daily newspaper, "guidance from China's Maritime Safety Administration, released on April 5, offers elaborate information on the route, which follows the northern coast of North America via waterways through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The information includes nautical charts and sea ice situations."

The Chinese-language document is more than 350 pages long.

While not a container ship, the Crystal Serenity, carrying 1,700 aboard, is scheduled to sail from Seward, Alaska, Aug. 15, traverse the Northwest Passage, and dock in New York City 32 days later. The 820-foot, 68,000 ton, 13-deck luxury cruise ship is owned by Crystal Cruises based in the United States. Its parent company is Genting Hong Kong, which in turn is part of Malaysian conglomerate Genting Group.

Many are eager to describe the late-summer state of the Northwest Passage as more or less ice-free, such as Paul Garcia, director of global public relations for Crystal Cruises. Nunavut News/North asked Crystal Cruises to respond to an international headline: "A new Titanic?"

"We have taken many extraordinary operational and equipment-related measures to ensure a safe voyage. The typical conditions along the planned route during the Arctic summer are substantially free of ice. With these extremely low ice concentrations, keeping the ship well clear of ice is entirely feasible."

When asked what the Canadian Coast Guard's greatest concerns regarding the Serenity's voyage might be, Peter Garapick, the Canadian Coast Guard's superintendent of search and rescue for the Central and Arctic Region, said, "The Arctic will continue to experience extreme variability in ice conditions from year to year and from area to area. Vessels transiting through the Northwest Passage should be prepared for rapid changes in weather and ice conditions."

However, Crystal Serenity is now set to travel with its own icebreaker, the British Royal Research Ship Ernest Shackleton. The "Shack" is an ICE 05 class of icebreaker which can navigate winter ice with pressure ridges and exceeds the more common 1A Super class, usually designated for summer navigation in polar waters. Two helicopters will be on board for real-time ice reconnaissance, emergency support and flight-seeing activities.

"We have been working on this project for three years and will be implementing a number of additional precautions to ensure the safety of all guests and crew," said Garcia.

Stephens compiled and reviewed countless studies and reports related to Arctic shipping routes and global shipping realities.

"I can't say that I consulted every single available source but I tried to be as comprehensive as possible and reviewed as much pertinent information as I could access and was aware of," said Stephens, adding it took him "six to eight months on and off, with about three months very intensively."

Throughout his report, Stephens compares the Northwest Passage to the eastern Northern Sea Route, about which he notes, "ice conditions are generally easier on the NSR but they are still unpredictable, requiring icebreaker services."

His research shows Russia has more than 40 modern icebreakers and is building 14 more, including the world's largest nuclear-powered icebreaker due to enter service in 2019. Canada, meanwhile, has two heavy icebreakers and is building one more, due to enter service before 2021, while the U.S. has only one heavy icebreaker in operation. Canada has 11 other vessels characterized as light to medium icebreakers.

"While the Northern Sea Route has seen a much greater volume of traffic than the Northwest Passage, the decline in NSR traffic in 2014 indicates that many obstacles still remain before either route can become viable commercially," he says.

But Stephen stresses he doesn't want to give the impression that's the end of the story for the Northwest Passage.

"There are still changes that are taking place and there are still things Canada can do and needs to do to take cognizance of the changing realities, such as the Arctic. And also, to use the interest of others and to use the fact that climate change has sparked an interest and has got people thinking about the North ... to use that to our advantage in a broader sphere."

Tourism, resource development, scientific research - these are all areas that can lead to much-needed infrastructure investments in Canada's North.

"This is an area where the three Asian countries I mention, China being the lead, but Japan and Korea, are all interested in the Arctic and the North for various reasons. This gives us a really useful card to play, a hand to play, a table to sit at to invite people to. We hold some strong cards," he said.

"There are a lot of reasons for taking advantage of the geographical proximity that we have, making a virtue of a necessity, frankly, in terms of bringing these people to the table and working with them.

"At the same time, improving our exercise of sovereignty and practical jurisdiction in the North."

China became an observer on the Arctic Council in 2013.

"Particularly in the case of China, which is, or certainly has ambitions to be, a global power, you want to look at everything. There's nothing that should be off limits to you. China is going to challenge the global order in every possible way," Stephens told Nunavut News/North.

"They already have an Arctic research station (Arctic Yellow River Station) in Spitsbergen. They have an Antarctic research station. They're putting people into space. They're going to do all these sorts of things.

"So the Northwest Passage is just a further dimension of that for China, part of its great power projection."

In fact, 11 countries have research stations at an old mine site in Norway on the island of Spitsbergen. The International Arctic Research base, Ny-Ålesund, counts India, Britain, Germany, France, Italy, China, Japan, South Korea, The Netherlands, Sweden and Norway as permanent tenants. Most research is centred around environmental and earth sciences.

Meanwhile, Canada is still building its Canadian High Arctic Research Station in Cambridge Bay, set to open in 2017.

Stephens makes a case for the Canada-Asia relationship to blossom.

"When you deal with Asia, if you're just a travelling salesman saying I want to sell you some more rocks and logs or LNG or having you build more cars in Canada ... That's only one dimension," he said.

"You have to have a full, well-rounded bilateral relationship. We have a long history with some of those countries, to the extent that we have a long history ... but you need to develop common areas of interest to flesh out that relationship.

"This is where the Arctic is perfect. They have an interest, they have funding - therefore it's logical for us to work together with them."

Stephens says Canada and China share several common priorities regarding the Arctic, including environmental protection, safer navigation and resource development.

"All countries, of course are interested in the impact of climate change on the Arctic and its knock-on effect elsewhere."

Finally, Stephens states: "But to play in this game, we have to protect our own asset base. That means not allowing the neglect of our Arctic interests to continue."

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