NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
As summer turns to fall in the NWT, Environment Canada has a bit of good news for those bracing for another long winter.

Yellow and orange leaves on the trees are a sure sign that summer has passed into fall. There is encouraging news from Environment Canada however. Models show we can expect a slightly warmer than normal autumn and winter across the NWT. - John McFadden/NNSL photo

Weather models are showing the next two months at least should be warmer than normal. But David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada, points out that warmer than normal is in fact the norm since weather data for the NWT began being collected almost 70 years ago.

"Trends are showing that over the past 68 years in the NWT, summers have warmed up by 1.8 degrees, springs are 2.5 degrees warmer, winters are 4.5 degrees warmer and falls are showing the least amount of warming but are still warmer by 1.5 degrees," Phillips said. "U.S. models for Alaska also show a warmer than usual fall which spills over into the NWT. But to be clear, we're not talking about July warm. You are not going to be sitting on patios drinking beer."

The weather models for the winter are also showing milder temperatures than normal for the NWT, according to Phillips.

"Some of that may be because of climate change. You get these odd years that are colder but the trend for the winter has shown the most dramatic change (toward milder temperatures) in the NWT," Phillips said. "So when old timers say, 'The winters aren't what they used to be,' they are absolutely right about that. The numbers bear that out."

Last winter was fairly close to normal temperatures in the NWT but Phillips said that overall, there is a trend toward wider variables in temperature.

"Wild swings are very much part of the climate system now. While in the past winters were cold and summers were hot. Now it's almost like a crap shoot and you're not sure what the situation is going to be," Phillips said. "2013-14 was one of your colder winters. Temperatures were more than five degrees on average colder than usual and you had a lot days at -40 C or colder. But you can go a winter with very few of those."

The wild card in the weather patterns can be dictated by the El Nino effect. The weather phenomenon is caused by warm ocean water near the equator moving north toward the eastern Pacific Ocean. It can have a profound moderating effect on our weather in the North, Phillips said.

This year the phenomenon is being dubbed "super El Nino" with climatologists predicting this season could be the strongest in 50 years.

"In the North, instead of from the land in the west, or the northwest, or the Arctic, there will be some of that Pacific air that gets over to you. That has the possibility to make the winter less lengthy," Phillips said. "I'm not suggesting a January thaw but you will have days where you don't have that brutal cold. But you may have a few more melting days as opposed to the freezing days."

Phillips suggests that El Nino has the potential to affect our temperatures in the North more than it has in the past where most of our weather has been mainly influenced by cold Arctic air.

As far as the summer that just finished in concerned, Phillips said temperatures were about average.

He noted that there was no snow in the territory in September to speak of and few days below freezing. Although it seemed like August was very rainy, the territory in fact only received three millimetres more rain than an average August, according to Phillips.

News/North pointed out to Phillips that he was one of the very few experts who, last spring, predicted our forest fire season would not be as bad as the year before. He was bang on with that forecast as only one fifth of the territory was lost to fire this past summer than was lost in 2014. He attributed his prediction to the fact that we had more snow pack than the year before, meaning the ground would at least be a little bit damper. Phillips wasn't about to crow about it however.

"I've learned over the years to say little when my predictions turn out to be wrong," he said.

"And to say even less when they are accurate."

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