SOMBA K'E/YELLOWKNIFE
The drought that led to arguably the worst forest fire season in NWT history will make the Environment Canada list of top 10 weather stories of 2014, while more snow expected this winter should lead to fewer fires next season. This, according to David Phillips, the weather agency's senior climatologist.

The drought and subsequent forest fires in the NWT this summer will be on Environment Canada's list of top Canadian weather stories of 2014, according to David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada. The health and economic issues that were associated with the fires along with their sheer size qualifies the event for the annual list, said Phillips - photo courtesy of Earl Evans

"The health issues, the economic ramifications that came with the fires as well as the amount of overall destruction mean the summer-long event meets the criteria for top weather stories," said Phillips, who compiles the annual list.

Forest fires burned some 35,000 square kilometres in the NWT in 2014 compared to the previous record of about 30,000 square km set in 1994. The fires also caused consistent closures of the only highway in and out of Yellowknife and left the city with a smoky haze over it for much of the summer.

Phillips said the drought and fires will likely be the only Northern weather story on this year's list. Last year's list included a rebound in the eastern Arctic, where the coldest summer in 15 years helped slow sea ice melting, and major flooding in southern Alberta that forced about 100,000 residents from their homes.

In terms of our long-range winter forecast, the models for the next three to four months in the NWT are still calling for slightly milder than normal, or normal, temperatures, Phillips said.

"October and the first half of November have been slightly milder than usual and we expect that to continue over the next few months," Phillips said.

The Environment Canada models are similar to others developed by private weather forecasting services in the U.S, which gives Phillips a sense of confidence, he said.

"I am aware the Farmer's Almanac is predicting the 'T-Rex' of winters. It's based on a number of unique factors, taking into account everything from moon phases to the width of black and brown bands on a certain type of caterpillar," Phillips said. It's produced about two years in advance, so we'll just have to wait and see."

Phillips said a lot of our weather over the next few months will hinge on the El Nino system - a large body of warmer-than-usual water out in the Pacific Ocean.

"What we're currently not seeing though is that warm water coupling with the air temperature," he said.

"The air is giving the water the cold shoulder so that makes things a little unique, a little trickier than usual to predict."

However, the warmer ocean water should mean that the jet stream over the NWT will dip and dive more than it did last winter, giving us stretches of milder weather. Data from Environment Canada showed that last winter was the coldest in Yellowknife in 33 years with an average temperature of -25.6 C from December through March.

One of the byproducts of a slightly milder winter will likely be more snow, Phillips said.

"Our models for forecasting precipitation aren't nearly as accurate as our temperature models," he said. "But with the El Nino influence you may see more snow in the NWT than last year. That of course will help the forest fire situation in the summer because there will be a more pronounced spring melt."

The Department of Environment and Natural Resources Department cited the lack of spring snow melt as a major contributor to the very dry conditions in the NWT in the spring and into the summer.

Phillips said his list of the top 10 Canadian weather stories for 2014 is expected to be released on or about Dec. 20.

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