INUVIK
Canada's leading meteorologist isn't one to to leap to conclusions, but he's cautiously optimistic last year's long, cold winter won't be repeated.

The unseasonably warm weather in the Inuvik area is no surprise. David Phillips of Environment Canada says the region is one of the hardest-hit areas in Canada when it comes to climate change. - photo courtesy of Tony Devlin

David Phillips of Environment Canada hedged a bit making that prediction.

"I'm on the fence a bit with this one," he said during a telephone interview Oct. 2.

The reason for his uncertainty is founded in statistics from the past. Everyone is likely familiar with the well-known La Nina and El Nino phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, he said. A La Nina effect generally precedes colder winter weather while the El Nino presages warmer weather. In a La Nina year, a pocket of colder-than-normal water forms in the Pacific Ocean, while the El Nino is the opposite.

This winter season isn't showing either one of those effects.

Instead, it's what Phillips calls a La Nada effect, which is Spanish for "nothing."

"The temperature in the Pacific Ocean is running pretty close to average," he said. "So it should be a typical winter, whatever that means."

Without a helping or hindering hand from the Pacific, Phillips said the weather in the Inuvik and Mackenzie Delta area will be determined largely by prevailing weather systems and wind. If the weather systems roar in from Siberia, it's going to be cold. If it's dominated by weather from the south, it's going to be warmer, but as yet there's no secure way to gauge that.

His statistics show a rather even split on the effects of the La Nada in the past. There's a slight trend to it tending to cause warmer-than-normal winters, Phillips said, but it's hardly conclusive.

Winters in Inuvik have turned significantly warmer as it is, Phillips said, notwithstanding last year's seemingly-endless season with long periods of consistently cold weather.

That's why many long-term and veteran residents, such as Dave Kaufman, say they've noticed the change in seasons, where the winter temperature no longer dips into the -50s C except on a rare occasion.

Gerry Kisoun, though, said he wasn't bothered too much about the current mini heat wave.

"Must be Indian summer weather, quite long this year," said Kisoun. "Still boating and patiently waiting for the freeze-up to happen.

"Some years, it freezes about Oct. 21, so, maybe the next few days will cause a freeze. It's maybe just hanging on a little longer. Usually we have a few colder nights, then a maybe -15 night and the river freezes."

Phillips said the temperature in the region during the winter months has shot up by an alarming almost five degrees Celsius in the last 65 years. That's the highest rate of climate change tracked in Canada, and among the highest in the world.

Kevin Floyd, an avid Inuvik hunter, has also noted the change to the weather this fall.

After a weekend hunt, Floyd said the animals are apparently bewildered, too. The ground should be dry and dusted with snow by now, he said. The animals he saw behaved as if they didn't know what to do about it either.

The summer temperature has shown a more moderate increase, at less than two degrees Celsius.

The summer of 2103 was the fifth-warmest on record, but didn't approach the record-breaking summer of 2012.

So while the winter temperature remains cold here, it is not approaching the extremes felt in the past, Phillips said.

He said his statistics show that Inuvik's lowest official temperature last winter was -42 C. The frustrating thing for residents, though, was the duration of those kinds of low temperatures, which began in November and persisted into April.

For the moment, Phillips said his forecast model is predicting slightly above-average temperatures into November. That's mostly because of a persistent low-pressure system maintaining a heavy cloud cover. He said that's preventing the night-time temperature from dropping into the -10 C level typical for this time of year, and keeping daytime temperatures raised a little too. Clouds provide an insulating effect, he said.

We welcome your opinions. Click here to e-mail a letter to the editor.