INUVIK - You might be able to design buildings to accommodate permafrost melting in Inuvik for the next 40 years or so but after that there's a problem, says permafrost expert Chris Burn.

Burn made that statement during his research presentation to an audience of about 25 people at the Aurora Research Institute on April 16.

Professor Chris Burn delivers his permafrost and climate change presentation to an Aurora Research Institute audience on April 16. - Andrew Rankin/NNSL photo

"When you look at the sorts of climate change that are expected in 100 years time, the engineering people have been saying 'Hold on, it's going to be very difficult to deal with this,'" he said.

Burn, who has done extensive research in the region, especially on Herschel Island and the Illisarvik area, showed diagrams and charts indicating the region is warming dramatically, causing permafrost melt.

In the last 35 years, the near surface ground temperature around Inuvik has risen to about -1 C from about -3 C, Aklavik's has risen to about -1.5 C from about -4 C, and Tuktoyaktuk's to about -7C from about -9 C.

Resident Wayne Patrie attended the presentation. As a project officer with the GNWT Department of Transportation, he said he has seen effects of permafrost melt in the area.

He said slumping along the Dempster Highway has become a fairly regular occurrence. Often it means sections of the highway have to be rebuilt. He said in the 1970s that was unheard of.

"Permafrost (degradation) is very difficult to handle," he said. "We have to think about structures to hold the highway together. You can't reroute the highway. It's a major problem. The cost is unbelievable."

Burn said the warming is most dramatically apparent in the winter. From 1890 to 1905 on Herschel Island, freeze-up commonly occurred between Sept. 5 and Oct. 5.

Burn said that during the last 40 years, the Western Arctic has been one of the most rapidly warming regions on the planet. He showed permafrost at Herschel Island has warmed at depths as far as 40 metres.

"It's not just happening a couple of years here and there, it's happening all the way through," he said, adding that the problem isn't going away, either.

"The climate of the next 30 years is largely driven by what's in the atmosphere at the moment. We can't get rid of greenhouse gases very quickly. Over the next 30 years we'll put lots more in the atmosphere. That's why people are worried."