SOMBA K'E/YELLOWKNIFE - Last week's decision to ban hunting of Bathurst caribou may be the final nail in the outfitting industry's coffin.

The GNWT has announced interim emergency measures which will affect resident, non-resident and aboriginal hunters.

The recent reported decline of the Bathurst caribou herd may spell the end of the outfitting industry in the NWT. The territorial government and the Tlicho government are proposing all hunting tags for outfitters, resident and commercial hunters be eliminated until at least 2012 until the next survey of the herd is scheduled. But the tags could be gone longer than that and even if they are gone for just three years, the outfitting industry may never recover. - photo courtesy of John Andre

Beginning Jan. 1, barren-ground caribou commercial/meat tag, resident and non-resident hunting will be closed in the North and South Slave region. As well, a no-hunting zone, spanning thousands of square kilometres will be closed to all harvesting - including the aboriginal hunt.

The announcement was foreshadowed by the Department of Environment and Natural Resources' Dec. 11 release of a new marketing program

The restrictions were prompted by GNWT reports indicating Bathurst caribou populations have declined to less than 32,000 animals recorded in June, down from 128,000 in 2006.

In a report released in November, following four days of workshops between the GNWT, aboriginal governments and other stakeholders, the territorial government predicts if action is not taken to protect the herd, it will all but disappear in the next five years.

Because of this prediction and the current numbers, the territorial government, in a joint proposal with the Tlicho government, is recommending to the Wek'eezhii Renewable Resource Board that all resident, commercial and outfitter caribou tags be eliminated until 2012, the next time a survey of the herd is scheduled.

Last week's announcement restricting hunting will not affect the resource board's present review which is expected to be completed by March. Although Michael Miltenberger, minister of the Department Environment and Natural Resources, has said the government might not comply with recommendations that ease hunting restrictions.

As a result, the fate of the outfitting industry, worth more than $4-million of economic spin-off in the NWT, may have already been decided.

While the GNWT's science shows a massive decline in the Bathurst herd, with theories pointing to changes in environment due to climate change, there is concern the count is inaccurate.

Outfitters, such as John Andre, question the designation of the Queen Maud Gulf caribou herd, renamed the Ahiak herd in 1996. In 1986, the GNWT first mapped the group as a distinct herd, ranging along the Queen Maud Gulf.

In a paper released in 2008 reviewing outfitter concerns about the newly-formed herd, the report states the Bathurst and Ahiak herd have shared the same calving ground in the past, showing overlap in 1986. However, in 1996 the GNWT found the Bathurst and Ahiak calving grounds had become "geographically distinct." Supported by five caribou collared which "calved within or close to the boundaries of the Queen Maud Gulf calving ground mapped by aerial survey in 1996."

In 2007, the aerial surveys for the Ahiak, Bathurst, and Beverly calving grounds revealed clear geographic separation between the three calving grounds, with the Ahiak taking over the old Bathurst calving ground east of Bathurst Inlet.

Andre, an outfitter from Montana who owns Qaivvik Ltd. and Caribou Pass Outfitter Ltd. and is a vocal denier of the GNWT's science, said the Ahiak herd explains the decline.

"They just aren't counting the Ahiak herd as part of the Bathurst anymore and comparing new surveys against past surveys is skewing the numbers," Andre said.

In 1986, the herd's calving ground was mapped and the GNWT found more than 30,000 Ahiak caribou in the area east of the Bathurst Inlet. In 1996, it flew the same region to fully map the calving ground of the herd, what they found "suggests that the Ahiak herd has increased during a period when the overall trend in the neighbouring Bathurst herd to the west was a decline."

The Ahiak herd was loosely estimated to be approximately 200,000 caribou in 1996, at the same time the Bathurst herd lost more than 125,000 animals. The approximation of the Ahiak herd in 1996 makes it one of the largest herds in the NWT. However, the GNWT admits in numerous reports the number is a "guesstimate" and more surveying of the herd is needed to determine an actual size.

Andre and fellow outfitter Boyd Warner suggest the split of the herd is fuelling the decline and the management actions are threatening the outfitting industry.

At a meeting between government officials and outfitters in July, Warner suggested the Ahiak herd be called the Bathurst East herd and be grouped in with the current Bathurst herd to give a more accurate picture.

"Once you put the Ahiak herd back into that quotient it doesn't make it easy for them to implement management actions," Andre said.

In 2007, outfitters filed a lawsuit against the GNWT seeking damages from the government for losses when caribou tags for visiting sport hunters were cut dramatically to 750 tags from 1,559. The lawsuit was then dropped in November 2007 when the GNWT agreed to have its work reviewed by a third party.

The Alberta Research Council (ARC), a provincially-owned not for profit organization, was commissioned to review the science used by the GNWT to survey and study Barren-ground caribou, which include both the Ahiak and Bathurst herds.

Jason Fisher, one of three researchers who completed the report in 2008, said GNWT researchers "did the best job that could be done given the amount of information they had. Given the information they had available they came to the right conclusion and we gave them recommendations to help fill those gaps."

"There is the possibility that the conclusions are not in fact correct, however, it's the only conclusion you can make on the data," Fisher added.

The review supports those who say the data is being based on too small a sample size of collared caribou.

Presently, the number of collared caribou in the Bathurst herd is approximately one to three caribou per 10,000, based on at-the-time population estimate of 100,000 animals. The research council recommends a substantial increase in the number of caribou collared to upwards of 80.

"Movement rates, fidelity, fecundity, birth and survival rates for the entire population are being based on sample sizes that are far too low to reliably infer to the greater population," the ARC report says. "Overall, more location data are needed to provide better information about herd distribution, movement, demography and overlaps between caribou herd ranges."

While the report offers a scathing review of the science behind counting caribou in the territory, it says the conclusions they've come to are the best they could do with the resources they have, albeit, limited.

"I think it was politicized," Andre said of the ARC report. "They didn't address the Ahiak/Bathurst question and it wasn't in the terms of reference.

"(ARC is) part of the Alberta government and you can't expect one government to come down on another government. I wonder how independent the report really was."

Andre is certain the Bathurst herd is moving back to the east side of Bathurst Inlet, where it has also traditionally calved.

"They're so anal about protecting this thing called the Bathurst caribou herd. It's going to disappear," Andre said.

"They say for 6,000 years it's gone back and forth from the west to east side of the inlet. They're moving back east and that's what is happening.

"They collar middle-aged caribou and those caribou will be faithful to the western side of the Bathurst Inlet. The way the shift works, it's almost like humans. It's the youngsters that leave and go find new calving areas. They are the ones that shift, that leave the house or the neighbourhood, and go elsewhere."

However, Fisher says there is no solid evidence to argue herd fidelity.

"All the collars out there show there is herd fidelity, however the issue becomes that their sample size is too small and it limits their ability to make sound conclusions about that topic," Fisher said. "Basically, it comes down to probability."

The debate over which caribou are from which herd will likely continue well after the fate of the outfitters is decided. Andre said he plans to continue the fight with the government over its work.