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NWT population declines again
Andrew Livingstone Northern News Services Published Monday, April 6, 2009
The NWT was the only Canadian jurisdiction in the past quarter to record a decrease in population. Territorial population decreased by 211 people in the first three months of 2009 dropping to 42,940 from 43,151, which is in keeping with a downward trend. The decline marks the fourth consecutive quarter in which the territory's population has been dropping. In the first quarter of 2008 the population increased by 133 people, but has been declining ever since. "For the last four years, there has been three years of demographic decline and it's because of inter-provincial migration, higher losses in that respect," said Hubert Denis, senior analyst for Statistics Canada, adding it was a record loss in 2008 since they began keeping numbers specific to the NWT in 1991. Migration has been the number one reason for the decline in population over the last four quarters. Last year 1,128 people migrated to other provinces, most going to British Columbia and Alberta. In 1997 more than 1,050 people left the territory. The last time the NWT saw a similar trend was in 1987, when the NWT and Nunavut were still combined. That year, 1,129 people left the territory. A total of 1,842 left the year before. Vishni Peeris, social and demographic statistician for the NWT Bureau of Statistics, said it's hard to compare current numbers to those of 1986-87. "The migration might have been different in Nunavut and might not reflect the actual out-migration that occurred in the NWT part of the territory then," Peeris said. "Our population is always driven by inter-provincial migration. If you look specifically at the inter-provincial migration components, you're looking at 2,400 moving here and 3,500 leaving here. It's quite a bit of movement." In 2008, there was a natural net-increase of about 500 people from 693 births and 194 deaths. Figures for this year's first quarter on births, deaths, and migration are not yet available. In 2008, 134 people moved to the NWT through international migration. "It's a small part of the puzzle," Peeris said. "It's the highest net in-migration since 2003. These numbers fluctuates quite a bit so it's hard to say what it might be." Yellowknife Mayor Gord Van Tighem said there were a slew of reasons during the period of 1986-87 that could have contributed to the out-migration numbers. Van Tighem said low metal prices caused a reduction in workforce at Pine Point Mine in the South Slave, eventually closing in 1988. He said low gold prices caused a loss at Con Mine, which eventually went up for sale in 1991 and Giant Mine was sold by Falconbridge to Pamour Inc. He said there were labour problems at both mines, resulting in possible job losses. The completion of a Norman Wells pipeline project in 1985 could have been the biggest reason for a decline, with more than 4,200 short-term jobs there. "As well, exploration activities dropped off in the Beaufort Sea due to low oil prices and no more federal incentive programs," said Van Tighem. "It shows we have cycles here. To some extent the decline is due to the economic situation, but it also has to do with the ability to count accurately." Van Tighem said the accuracy in the numbers can't be taken as the complete truth, citing issues with census data and methodology of population count. "In 2006, the census was done without people. It was done by handing out the forms to people and saying it was a criminal offence not to fill them out," he said. "Therefore, they assumed everyone filled them in. There are people here who don't do things that are volunteer. "The only time we really felt confident with the count was during the reign of Mr. Handley who demanded a recount in 2001 and we ended up with some more realistic numbers." Tighem said 60 vacant houses in Fort Resolution were reported in 2001. "It's always been on the top of the list for houses because they are under-housed," he said. "They said they knocked on the door and nobody answered." |