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SOMBA K'E/YELLOWKNIFE - A report released Thursday by Environment Canada indicates the nation's caribou are in decline and could disappear before the end of the century if changes to habitat and a recovery strategy are not put in place.

However, the eight herds of caribou in the NWT are less at risk than the rest of the country, with only two trans-boundary herds assessed as unsustainable.

This map shows all caribou herds in Canada and ranks them on their ability to be self-sustaining. Twenty nine of the 57 herds are ranked as unable to sustain their populations. Only two herds in the NWT are at risk, both trans-boundary herds which travel between the NWT and Alberta.

The complex 300-page report outlines the ability of the sustainability of 57 herds across Canada to their current habitats. Population trends – average population increase vs decrease – of herds analyzed in the NWT from the Gwich’in, Sahtu and Inuvialuit regions are indicated to be self-sustaining; the population in the Gwich’in region was reported to be increasing.

However, more accurate trend data is required to depict the sustainability of herds in North Slave, Deh Cho and South Slave and Sahtu which are said to be above critical – more than 300 population, the report's highest rating.

Herd disturbance – whether natural, such as fires, or human interference -- is listed as low or moderate for all herds except for the two trans-boundary herds between Alberta and the NWT.

Boyd Warner, an outfitter with Bathurst Inlet Developments, said the report is encouraging and reflects what outfitters have been seeing within the herds.

“It’s nice to finally see something that enlightens the fact that we are seeing herds that are healthy,” he said.

Warner said they have seen a shift in caribou migration patterns and with this shift in pattern the problem of properly reporting on the animal can be tough, hence the incomplete and unknown numbers surrounding population trends and sizes.

“Caribou seem to be spending more time in the barren lands. These caribou seem to be spending more time there and part of the problem is there is no one out there to report caribou in that region."

Hunting primarily in the North Slave region with his outfitting company, Warner said they are seeing strong numbers in the herds in that region, a region with unknown population trends. Warner hopes the GNWT will find this report insightful and take a look at the amount of caribou tags they give out annually, a number that was cut by half in 2007 to 750 from 1,500 to slow declining caribou numbers.

“We’ve been told they are in drastic trouble,” he said. “Once people start to believe that people begin to fight over who gets the resource. We don’t have a serious problem so lets not fight over it, so I hope this comforts Northerners that things are sustainable and increasing and we’re not in a situation where we are losing our caribou at a high rate.”

The report says small populations face a high risk of extinction when populations become isolated, as is the case for most small caribou populations in Canada, due to human-caused range loss.

Herds in Alberta and across the prairies are facing serious issues with sustainability and are most affected by resource development in the region.

“This report will be valuable to people when the Mackenzie Valley pipeline project starts to take shape,” he said, adding what is seen in Alberta with dwindling sustainability among herds due to resource development, particularly the tar sands, could easily happen with a project like the pipeline.

Environment Canada responded to News/North questions on the report about the lack of complete information on NWT herds stating, "The report identified a number of information gaps. Further work to determine the necessary detail on population data for NWT is currently underway."

Environment Canada said the problem causing a lack of sustainability within the herd populations “is predation, associated with natural or human-caused landscape conditions that favour young forests and higher densities of alternative prey, resulting in increased risk of predation to caribou. They said “Boreal woodland caribou require habitat conditions that allow them to meet their life history requirements, such as adequate forage quality and quantity to allow breeding and recruitment of calves and large enough tracts of preferred habitat to allow spatial separation from predators and alternative prey throughout the year.

Environment Canada said this report is the first step towards a strategy

“The scientific report will be publicly available on the Species at Risk Act public registry for a 60-day comment period, and consultations will be undertaken over the coming months with provinces and territories, Aboriginal people, industry and others in order to finalize the identification of critical habitat.”

The report will help the Federal Government develop a recovery strategy for the summer of 2011.

The GNWT Department ofEnvironment and Natural Resource officials was unavailable for comment before deadline.