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SOMBA K'E/YELLOWKNIFE - The premise that caribou herds are dwindling is based on data from samples sizes that are too small and too infrequently monitored, according to an independent report released Thursday.

Caribou outfitters who filed a lawsuit against the government over herd numbers feel an independent review indicates there is not an emergency. However, the report does support government conservation methods while recommending measures for more accurate numbers and recording. - NNSL file photo

The report by the Alberta Research Council found the territorial government acted responsibly in managing caribou based on figures indicating declines in population and made numerous recommendations for government to improve on research methods.

"Movement rate, fidelity, fecundity, birth, and survival rates for the entire population are being based on sample sizes that are far too low to reliably infer to the greater population," the report states.

The report was commissioned as a condition for three caribou outfitters to drop a lawsuit against the government over what they saw as faulty science used to justify implementing "emergency" conservation measures, which limited caribou tags to 75 for outfitters.

The report found the government's data supported a conclusion the Bathurst, Bluenose and Cape Bathurst herds were in decline. However it pointed out "some interpretations of the data are scientifically debatable, and changes are required to make trend analyses more definitive and achieve public and scientific consensus on NWT caribou management."

The report calls for government to increase collaring efforts in order to produce larger and more random sample sizes for all herds, to set up a regular monitoring schedule and to have results made public immediately and be brought to external agencies for peer-reviews.

Jason Fisher, a mammal ecology research scientist was one of three authors of the Alberta Research Council report -- contracted in Jan. 2008 -- to look at the validity of government caribou counting science.

He said, based on government data there is a tendency that points to a decline.

"If we knew more, maybe it wouldn't be the case," he said.

"It does not mean the data are no good, it just means that there could be more data and we want to keep an open mind to see what those data might say," he said.

He added, in the meantime, the government has to act on the data it has based on the "precautionary principle."

"It means if it looks like a decline, smells like a decline, tastes like a decline, it probably is a decline and we better manage on that basis," he said.

Boyd Warner, one of the three outfitters involved in the lawsuit, said the report isn't very "flattering" for the government.

"If that was my report card, I'd read that as barely a passing grade," he said.

He said while some good would come from the report's recommendations, he was disappointed to read they all came from the reviewers' acceptance of the government's definition of a caribou herd.

"As an individual outfitter, if I would have known this whole report would have been based on ENR's definition of a herd, then I couldn't have accepted it because that was the whole issue," he said.

Warner said in 1986, the Bathhurst was the lone caribou herd from Great Bear Lake to just east of Yellowknife. Presently, there are three herds in that area. Warner said all outfitters' tags come from the Bathhurst herd and since the three herds are mixed, the government can't apply all harvests to the one herd.

"It has always been our case that those animals are sharing old calving grounds and sharing winter ranges and we need to count all the apples in the barrel and not just half of them," he said.

Fisher said the government followed "the standard definition that everybody uses and makes good ecological sense" in stating there are three separate herds.

"If the outfitters went out and hired ARC to do their review based on our definition, I'm sure it would have favoured us," said Warner.

Michael Miltenberger, minister of environment and natural resources, said the report validates the science and approach government biologists have used to determine caribou numbers, but said the government could do better.

"I said this when we started this process many months ago now that we would accept and act on the recommendations of the report and we are going to take the steps to do that," said Miltenberger.

The government funded the $75,000 report.

As part of the terms of reference, Fisher said the researchers had to assume all government calculations that came up with trend decline data were "all right as rain."

The report could have consequences for commercial harvesters in the NWT.

Miltenberger said it could "very possibly" affect further outfitter hunting restrictions.

"If you check up North, along the coast and down the valley, the boards up there have already instituted very rigorous, stringent restrictions in terms of commercial harvesting," he said, adding in some cases, boards have limited the harvest to one animal per family.

He said in Sahtu and Inuvialuit areas, wildlife management boards have employed a tag system for all hunters.

"If science and traditional knowledge tells us that things are getting worse then there could be other measures required," he said.

"I think everybody recognizes that, that the preservation of the herds are the foremost priority."

Fisher said the outfitters have done a benefit to the NWT by holding the government accountable to justify the validity of its data.

"Government agencies or anybody doing science can really use watchdogs to make sure that the government is doing the best job they can," he said.

John Andre, another outfitter involved in the lawsuit, said he wants to move forward with the government after the report, adding he will speak with Miltenberger before commenting on whether he would pursue further legal action against the government.

"Clearly, there is no caribou emergency and that's the good news," said Andre.