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Nunavut's Arctic ocean could be ice-free by 2020

Derek Neary
Northern News Services
Monday, May 07, 2007

NUNAVUT - Sea ice in the far North is melting three times faster than previously projected by scientists, a report by leading American researchers revealed last week.

At that pace, the Arctic Ocean could be clear of ice during summers, or very close to it, by 2020, much earlier than the former prediction of 2050.

The study by the National Centre for Atmospheric Research and the University of Colorado showed that ice has actually receded by close to 7.8 per cent per decade since the 1950s. Previous modelling by scientists had pegged it at 2.5 per cent per decade.

The researchers indicated that rising greenhouse gas emissions and a natural warming cycle are both contributing to the drastic reduction of sea ice, at least since the late 1970s.

Enuk Pauloosie of Gjoa Haven said if that scientific forecast proves accurate it will have a major effect on the lives of people in Northern communities.

"The hunters would be affected the most," he said. "They travel on sea ice all the time."

Kugluktuk's Jack Himiak said polar bears would also be hard pressed to adapt, but he added that development in Nunavut and globally is contributing to the problem.

"It's a changing world, but what can you do?" he asked. "We're going to have to find another planet soon."

Pauloosie wondered aloud whether one day winter will cease to exist, even in the Arctic.

"There's nothing we could do unless these big (industrial) plants down south could slow down on all that smoke they create," he said.

Yet Pauloosie and Himiak agreed that each recent year hasn't been consistent - some have brought early winters, some late; some have resulted in plenty of snow, some little; sometimes the ice is thin and brittle, sometimes it's still very thick and solid.

Resolute's Isaac Kalluk, a hunter who grew up in an iglu, said he has noticed the warmer-than-usual springs, heavier rainfalls in the summer and ice that seems to be getting thinner each year. However, he insisted that that the ice is melting more rapidly underneath than on top.

"There's something wrong in the ocean," he suggested.

Despite the changing conditions and rather unsettling prognostications, Kalluk isn't letting it disturb him.

"I'm not worried about that right now. What comes is going to come, we cannot predict that there is not going to be no more ice," he said. "As far as we know, the Arctic is still going to be very cold in the winter."

After some more thought, Himiak said everybody can at least make an effort to reduce their impacts on the environment.

"Somehow we've got to slow it down," he said. "If it means to go back on bicycles or something, we may have to in the future."