HAY RIVER - An ongoing study may one day help Hay River residents protect property and personal safety from the dangers of flooding.

Chris Krath, a civil engineering technologist from the University of Alberta, takes a reading of the Hay River on April 25. - Paul Bickford/NNSL photo

An Alberta university professor is hoping to develop a way to predict the break-up of the Hay River.

"Our ultimate goal here is to develop some forecasting," said Dr. Faye Hicks, a University of Alberta engineering professor, who has studied the river break-up for several years.

Hicks believes a reliable forecasting system is possible.

"I think it is realistic, but it's going to take a lot of detailed data," she said, noting the spring break-up of a river is very complex.

This is the fourth year that Hicks has been in Hay River to study the break-up with a team from the university.

Hicks said, beginning in October, she plans to start developing a detailed forecasting model. That work is expected to take about three years.

She hopes a forecasting model will become one more tool to help the community prepare for break-up and the possibility of flooding.

Over the past 50 years there have been a half a dozen floods in Hay River, most of them causing relatively little damage. The Canadian government has only recorded five since 1900 serious enough to warrant being added to the statistics.

Government perception of what is considered a serious flood has caused controversy in Hay River in the past.

In 2003, the territorial government denied over $100,000 in compensation claims from residents and the municipal governments in Hay River and on the Hay River Reserve.

Vince Steen, who was the minister of Municipal and Community Affairs at the time, said better precautions could have prevented the damage.

However, a flood in 1963, which caused extensive damage, is credited with influencing Hay River's future development.

A new town site was developed away from what is now known as Old Town on Vale Island.

If Hicks is successful in her attempts to develop better flood forecasting it could help residents in the Hay River area be more prepared.

A veteran river watcher in the community is skeptical of the possibility of eventually predicting the river's behaviour.

W.R. "Red" McBryan, who has observed the break-up of the river since 1952, wishes Hicks and her colleagues success, but said it will be hard to develop an accurate forecasting system.

"It's going to be a real struggle to do that," he said. "It's going to be a massive struggle."

McBryan said the river can change very quickly depending on the weather and ice conditions.

Even after 55 years watching break-up, he said it doesn't get any easier to predict what the river will do.

Still, McBryan supports Hicks' work and offers any help he can.

"I hope they can do it," he said. "Anything they can do to identify the behaviour of this river, I'm 100 per cent behind them."

Hicks' study looks at conditions such as snowfall, weather conditions and the amount of ice on the river system leading to break-up, plus what happens during break-up - where the ice moves, where it jams and other flow characteristics.

The researchers use an array of equipment, including cameras along the river and a laser instrument to measure elevations of ice out in the river.

Hicks noted the research is helped by data collected each year by the Town of Hay River.

"No one else is collecting data like this town," she said, adding Hay River is very proactive compared to other flood-prone communities in Canada. "They're way ahead of every other town I know."

She hopes to develop a three-phased forecasting system.

The first phase would be several weeks ahead of break-up to give people a general idea of what to expect.

The second phase would be when ice jams form upstream and what might happen when they release. That would provide six to 12 hours of warning.

Finally, the forecast will look at when the surge of water and ice arrives in town and how it is likely to jam in the West and East Channels. Again, it would provide six to 12 hours of warning.

"The really hard part is when that release wave hits town and how it jams in the delta, the East and West Channels," Hicks said. "We need a lot of data."

Hicks is also studying the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray.

"We've already developed forecasting models there, which we're testing," she noted, adding there has been some success with the model.

In addition, she is going to the Mackenzie Delta this spring to study the break-up of the river as part of International Polar Year.

The University of Alberta team first came to Hay River the year after the flooding of 2003. The then Department of Indian and Northern Affairs requested the university start a monitoring program to develop a forecasting model.

The department, now Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, provides $10,000 to $20,000 a year in funding and in-kind support, such as equipment and technical personnel. The Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada also provides $10,000 annually.

The research council's funding runs out next year and Hicks hope it will be renewed.