Inuvik (Jan 01/07) -How many babies will be born in the NWT this year?

It's a difficult question to answer which depends on many variables.

But if certain patterns hold true, the number could be higher in 2007 than it has been in a long while.

According to the National Aboriginal Achievement Foundation, aboriginal youth are the fastest growing segment of the Canadian population.

This is supported by the Canadian census, which reveals that about half of Canada's aboriginal population is under 25.

Across Canada, aboriginal women have a birth rate five times higher than the Canadian average, for mothers aged 15 to 19.

This rate increases to nine times the average for mothers aged under 15, though such births are rare.

The NWT Health Status Report also reveals that birthrates are higher in smaller communities such as Aklavik, Tuktoyaktuk, Paulatuk, and Fort McPherson.

In 2005, the statistical birthrate for these communities was 77.7 babies per 1,000 women, while larger centres such as Yellowknife, Fort Smith, Hay River and Inuvik had a birthrate of about 57 babies per 1,000 women that year.

At Tuktoyaktuk's Child Development Centre, co-ordinator Sarah Ettagiak-Adams said high birth rates can be seen as cause for celebration.

"We have a lot of youth coming up. There's more than usual. We're getting more populated and seeing more babies, which is a good thing," she said.

In Paulatuk, mayor Ray Ruben also said he's proud of the community's birth rate, which he said is recently enjoying a resurgence.

"We're a small community, but we're growing. Many families are having many children," Ruben said.

While the aboriginal segment of the population has a comparatively high birth rate, the overall average for the NWT has declined severely in recent years.

According to the 2005 NWT Health Status Report, the territory's birth rate declined 36 per cent between 1990 and 2002, 15.3 from 24.1 births per 1,000 people.

Translated into actual babies, this means a decline from about 900 births a year in the early 1990s, to 635 by 2002 across the territory.

While this decline is certainly important, it might also be temporary.

In fact, due to a spike in birth rates from the late 1980s to mid 1990s, there might be an "echo boom" in the near future, as large groups of teens reach childbearing age.

In Tuktoyaktuk, for instance, the average number of births per year was 37 from 1982 to 1987, falling to 18 per year in 2001.

In Fort McPherson, the hamlet averaged 21 births a year from 1992 to 1996, but only 13 a year from 1997 to 2001.

As these children reach childbearing age, it is putting a strain on community resources.

"We already need more space, more cribs," said Ettagiak-Adams, who added the Tuktoyaktuk Child Development Centre already has a waiting list.

Indeed, it would seem 2007's "New Year's Babies" might arrive in greater numbers than expected.