Yellowknife (Sep 20/06) - A further decline in the Bathurst caribou herd reported by government officials Tuesday, has scientists and hunters at odds over what has caused the continued drop in numbers.

Estimated to be at 128,000 animals this year, that number is down 58,000 from the 2003 count and nearly 350,000 since a 1986 government count when the herd numbered 472,000.

"It's a continuation of the decline we've observed since the mid-eighties," said Ray Case, manager of technical support for Environment and Natural Resources's (ENR) wildlife division.

"That's when we feel the herd was at its highest level and for the most part the decline is part of an unnatural cycle.

That said human activities can probably have their greatest impact when the caribou population is declining or low."

While Case declined to comment on what measures should be implemented to protect the herd, when Environment Minister Michael Miltenberger was questioned last week about what may take place to protect caribou populations in decline north of Great Bear Lake, he told News/North that the traditional harvest may have to be counted.

"The one unmonitored piece of the harvest is the aboriginal hunt so we have to sit down and talk about how we monitor and regulate the whole harvest so we can control that impact," he said.

Measures already taken this year have been a reduction in resident non-aboriginal tags to two from five. As well, outfitters had their quotas dropped by 30 per cent.

Gary Steele, a former guide for 15 years and gun repair specialist at Wolverine Sports is skeptical of government numbers and disputes hunting and harvesting is the biggest impact on the herd most sought after by Yellowknife area hunters.

"It's pretty hard to get an accurate count on those caribou and they do migrate into other areas," he said.

Steele believes that predation of calves may provide part of the explanation and reiterated the opinion shared by other area hunters that increases in the wolf and grizzly bear population are to blame.

"It's probably due to premature calves getting predated on, whether it be wolves or bears, we know those animals are hard on the caribou herds," added Steele. "And there's not as many people on the land taking care of the wolves, that's just a theory from myself and other fellows who have spent time on the Barrens."

Add that to a moratorium on grizzly bear tags, and increased human encroachment in the name of mineral exploration and development, Steele calls it a recipe for the current situation.

However, Case maintains wolf populations in the region have actually decreased and while it's impossible to put the blame in any one corner, hunting is the one variable that can be controlled.

"We can't point to any one cause, it's not that wolves didn't have a role, they undoubtably did, as did harvesting particularly adult females," said Case.

"Also there's weather factors, severe summers with severe insects harassments that reduces the caribou's ability to feed over the summer so it's impossible to tease out the specific contribution of each factor.

The important thing is people who use the herd can change the way they use it to minimize their impact."

According to Case, the next step is for ENR to discuss management options with aboriginal groups and other hunters who use the herd.

"We're confident all will recognize a need to conserve the caribou and come up with some management options and strategies that we can work with."