Roxanna Thompson
Northern News Services

Yellowknife (Sep 30/05) - With the first snowfall of the season already on the ground, winter has arrived.

The prognoses for what Yellowknifers can expect this winter are mixed.

Aldin Jansen, a flight services specialist with NAV Canada, checks the thermometers in the weather observing compound at the Yellowknife airport. The readings provide up-to-the-minute weather reports for pilots. - Roxanna Thompson/NNSL photos

Environment Canada is forecasting near normal or above normal temperatures for the next six months. This, however, might not happen.

"The long-range models are not particularly great," admits Yvonne Bilan-Wallace, a meteorologist with Environment Canada based in Edmonton.

Temperatures haven't been above normal since April. In fact, they've been one to two degrees below normal, an amount that Bilan-Wallace said is significant.

But just because the summer was cold it doesn't mean the trend will continue.

"Somewhere this cycle has to end," said Bilan-Wallace.

There are no big trends - like an El Nino warm air system from the Pacific Ocean - affecting the weather right now, but the warm temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean might be influencing the atmosphere.

This is what gave the NWT colder temperatures while Eastern Canada got a record-breaking heatwave this summer, said Bilan-Wallace.

If long-range temperature forecasts are slightly unreliable, precipitation ones are worse, she said. Currently the forecasts are calling for above-normal amounts for the mainland NWT.

Disagreement

One of Canada's best-known weather prognosticators - the Farmer's Almanac - only partially agrees with Environment Canada.

"We are looking for the winter to be about one degree cooler than normal, with more snow than normal," said Jack Burnett, the Canadian specialist for the publication.

The Almanac expects the heaviest snow in early November, December and March. The coldest temperatures will be in mid and late December, mid-January and early February.

So what weather will the winter really bring? "The answer is we will have to wait and see," said Bilan-Wallace.