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 While Environment Canada usually has little difficulty telling you what sort of weather you can expect when you wake up in the morning, it gets a little tricker to forecast after the first 24 hours. |
"I can't believe how much money is spent around the world on these weather guys, and they're running a 50/50 chance," said Ragnar Wesstrom, owner of Enodah Trout Rock Lodge.
"We can hire some medicine man to come up with those forecasts for much cheaper."
Wesstrom pointed to recent forecasts that predicted record lows that never materialized the week after Christmas.
"We got six hours left, where is it?" said Wesstrom on New Year's Eve.
His cynicism begs the question: Just how accurate are the weather reports we receive?
As it happens, Environment Canada is just as curious to find out. Last month, the government agency compared its weather forecasts with what actually happened.
Yvonne Bilan-Wallace, a meteorologist with the Arctic Weather Centre in Edmonton, said that while short-range forecasts are relatively bang-on, the crystal ball starts to get a little hazier after a couple days.
She said for November, Environment Canada was right 100 per cent of the time - plus or minus 3C - on one-day forecasts, and got it right 92 per cent of the time during December.
The glowing record sinks considerably, however, when meteorologists try to predict the weather two days in advance.
According to Bilan-Wallace, 63 per cent of two-day forecasts were accurate in November and 68 per cent in December.
"I think what we have to do is when we start identifying these periods that are particularly off, then maybe we can recognize what kind of situation is it, look back at our models, and ask, 'why were we led astray?'" said Bilan-Wallace.
Dark winters make forecasting weather in the North particularly difficult. Sunlight tends to stabilize temperatures and make forecasting easier.
Simply put, predicting weather in the North will likely be a crap shoot for a long time to come yet. A little wind or a few flurries can make all the difference in the world temperature-wise.
"Just a little bit of something can make a huge difference in those temperatures this time of year, because you don't have the sunshine," said Bilan-Wallace.
"If you get a tiny bit of cloud in, the temperature pops up 10 degrees."
