Yellowknife (Sep 29/04) - Shakespeare once wrote that the winter wind is "not so unkind as man's ingratitude" -- but he didn't live in Yellowknife.

There are years in the North where winter is more of an Olympic event than a mere season. And so each waning summer begs the question of what the winter will bring.

Yvonne Bilan-Wallace, a meteorologist with Environment Canada, says while there is some cause for optimism this winter, the overall picture is unclear.

"It's been a very strange year so far," said Bilan-Wallace. Yellowknife saw a "cold late winter last year, a very late cool spring and a late start to summer. This year has been kind of a dud for weather."

Bilan-Wallace said she expects a continuation of summer patterns into the fall.

Indeed, Environment Canada is forecasting temperatures near or below normal for the fall, which it defines as September, October and November.

Winter, however, could have better weather than usual. Bilan-Wallace points to warm air over the Pacific Ocean and says she doesn't expect a cold core of air over Hudson's Bay to make it to Yellowknife.

El Nino coming?

She also says some people are forecasting a weak El Nino for this year. The El Nino weather phenomenon -- the name means "Christ Child" in Spanish -- stems from warm water in the Pacific off South America. It often produces unnaturally warm winter conditions in Western Canada and the North.

In the winter of 2002-2003, El Nino raised November temperatures up to 20 degrees above normal. The warm weather severely hampered ice road construction in the NWT and created problems for the mining, oil and gas industries.

"I'm hoping that if we do have an El Nino, it will give the southern part of the NWT a warmer winter," said Bilan-Wallace.

She cautioned, however, that an El Nino this year would be smaller than in 2002-2003. "Every El Nino manifests itself in a different manner," she explained.

As for snowfall, Bilan-Wallace wouldn't hazard a guess, saying that warmer weather doesn't necessarily mean more snow.

"Precipitation (forecasting) models are very poor," she said. "I don't even look at them."

Bilan-Wallace did say that spring -- March, April and May -- is expected to be unseasonably cold.

So: cold, warm, cold. The glib Bard of Avon ought to be glad he's not in Yellowknife to learn the meaning of man's ingratitude.