.
Search
Email this articleE-mail this story  Discuss this articleWrite letter to editor  Discuss this articleOrder a classified ad

Clues about the fire season

Paul Bickford
Northern News Services

Fort Smith (June 16/03) - Rick Lanoville says it is impossible to know exactly what the forest fire season will be like in the NWT this summer.

"We can't crystal ball this thing. That's not possible," says Lanoville, the manager of forest science services with the Forest Management Division of RWED.

However, there is one clue as to the possible severity of forest fires this year.

That is the "drought" conditions, the amount of moisture in the organic layer of the forest floor, Lanoville explains.

That indicator is positive this year, he notes. "Actually, we're in pretty good shape."

That is because last summer was fairly wet, he says, although there was a less than normal snowfall this past winter.

The organic layer is between six inches and one foot underground.

Scientists keep track of the moisture content by the Fire Weather Index System, which is used across Canada.

If the organic layer is moist enough, it cannot sustain a fire there, Lanoville explains.

The dryness of the ground normally increases over the summer, he adds, noting the only thing that would change that trend would be a significant amount of rain.

The fire conditions are also affected by surface fuels, which Lanoville says are important in the NWT.

That includes moss, lichen and small twigs.

"That's the kindling."

Surface fuels change day to day, and are affected by drying of the fine fuels and the occurrence of lightning, he adds.

"When those two combine, that will define the fire season. There's no way to predict how that is going to work."

Lanoville says it is impossible to predict how many fires there will be this summer or how big they will get.

However, with the current moisture in the organic layer, it will likely be late in the season before there are difficult fires to extinguish.

Summer rain will also be more effective in reducing the fire danger.

The peak month for forest fires in the NWT is normally July.