Michelle DaCruz
Northern News Services

Yellowknife (Mar 20/02) - If census figures for Yellowknife and the NWT prove correct, it could be a costly situation for the territories.

Last week's 2001 Statistics Canada census results showed that the NWT as a whole has lost more than 2,000 residents or 5.8 per cent of its population since 1996.

"The census numbers are dead wrong," Finance Minister Joe Handley said.

YK Mayor Gord Van Tighem agrees.

"The numbers are understated. We have nothing to indicate that the population went down. Just look at the zero vacancy rate in town," Van Tighem said.

The census figures are integral to calculating federal transfer payments to the territories and provinces.

For every man, woman, and child, the territory is entitled to $14,083 a year.

If the numbers are correct and the NWT has lost 2,312 people then the total loss of revenue is approximately $163 million over five years.

John Monroe, GNWT's director of fiscal policy said although it is premature to begin calculating transfer payments until the final population counts come in, the amount of lost transfer revenue could hover in the hundred millions.

"If the final number does come in at a loss of about 2,000 people, then it would be correct to estimate about a $163 million loss," said Monroe.

Handley points to the increase in economic activity and consumer spending, and the decrease in available housing as proof the numbers are too low.

"In Inuvik for instance, you could shoot a gun down the street and not kill anyone at the time of the last census. Now the streets are full," said Handley.

The minister would like to see the GNWT involved in a review of all community population figures in the territory.

Review already begun

Jerry Page, director, Prairie region and NWT for Stats Can said the quality assurance program is already under way. This is a independent audit, that the agency conducts after every census.

"We check administrative records, birth and deaths, previous residences, to determine whether people were missed," said Page.

Stats Can admits that census numbers are usually short by two to three per cent on average across Canada.

David Stewart of NWT's Bureau of Statistics said it was unusual that the 1996 census missed about 2,100 people or five per cent of NWT's population.

Page disagrees. He said due to the transient nature of NWT's population, five per cent is not a large number.

Sandy Holmes, a resident of Ingram Trail, said he personally guided the two census representatives, from Vancouver, and Regina, on a three-day trek through his community.

"They visited any habitable dwelling out here," said Holmes. "All the way from the city limits to Tibbitt Lake."

Holmes also pointed out that people willingly went to the census office in town to be registered.

One possible explanation for the low numbers, Page pointed out, is the fact that many mining, oil and gas workers are not actual residents of NWT.

They are counted at their permanent residences throughout Canada, even though they are a drain on local services.

"Census taking is not a precise art because people are always moving. Whether in the South or the North, people are travelling, working or studying in other locations other than which they permanently live," Page added.

"Some are missed for these reasons, and others just don't want to be counted."

Recount unlikely

Both Page and Stewart agree that they have never heard of an entire province or territory being recounted, and it is not likely it will occur this time around.

Page promises that if the GNWT makes an official request to re-examine the numbers, StatsCan will.

"We can make mistakes, but we want to make sure we did a good job," said Page.

If you haven't been counted there is no guarantee that you will be included in the 2001 count, according to Page.

"Look at the census as a snapshot of the country on May 15," he said. "If someone was missed the question remains, 'Where were they when we were trying to contact them?'"

Page urges people that were missed to contact the StatsCan regional office in Edmonton, and representatives will take the data over the phone, and try to determine why they were missed.