Richard Gleeson
Northern News Services

Yellowknife (Feb 04/02) - The question is no longer whether the fabled Northwest Passage will become a shortcut for ships travelling between Asia and Europe, but how soon ships will start sailing it.

All indications are that will happen sooner than most people realize.

The chief forecaster for the Canadian Ice Service said that, over the last year and a half he's received inquiries from European shipping companies about ice conditions in the passage.

"Serious cargo vessels could start looking at it within five years," said John Falkingham. He said initially the passage, 5,000 nautical miles shorter than the regular route through the Panama Canal, would be used on an experimental basis.

Falkingham estimated it would be at least 20 years before shipping companies could be using the route regularly. He added that ice cover among the islands can vary dramatically from year to year.

The big challenge the passage presents to shippers is ice. But the risk, and the ice, have been diminishing over the last 30 years as climate change brings warmer temperatures to the North.

Satellite imagery shows the ice cover in the Northern Hemisphere has been shrinking an average of three per cent per year.

"In our model, by the middle of the 21st century there will be an essentially seasonally covered Arctic Ocean," said Greg Flato, research scientist for the Meteorological Survey of Canada.

Flato said the survey's model foresees a faster decline in Arctic ice than most other predictions. If it is correct, by the time the teenagers of today are senior citizens, they will be able to boat to the North pole.

Port in the passage

The Kitikmeot region is hoping to capitalize on the warming trend. It continues to pursue its goal of establishing a deep sea port at Bathurst Inlet.

That's good news for the shipping company that does more business in the Arctic than any other.

Montreal-based Fednav Ltd. ships ore concentrates from the Nanisivk and Polaris mines and others in Northern Quebec and Alaska.

Fednav's flagship, the ice-breaking cargo vessel MV Arctic, can ram through ice four metres thick, and will motor continuously through ice of 1.5 metres.

Bob Gorman, said it will likely not be until the time of our grandchildren than the Northwest Passage becomes a commercially viable route for general shipping.

"Right now, it really doesn't pay," Gorman said of the passage as an alternative to the Panama canal or southern tip of South America.

Gorman said for Fednav, it is travel into, rather than through, the Northwest Passage that presents the most opportunity for the shipper.

"The long-term future looks good with shipping into Coronation Gulf," he said, referring to the port proposed for Bathurst Inlet and the base-metal mines that may open up.

"The Kitikmeot is the next region that we see developing. There's a lot of potential there."

Gorman said if the port plan was to be realized, base-metal concentrates would likely be shipped east to European ports.

Environmental concerns

Whether it's shipping through the passage or in and back out, any increase brings with it concerns about accidents, particularly spills.

"Whenever you get commercial ventures like this, there's always a temptation to push the envelope," said territorial Transportation Minister Joe Handley. "If there ever was a big spill there would be no capacity to respond immediately."

The Canadian Coast Guard is responsible for dealing with cleanups and damage to the environment resulting from marine traffic. He said resources are deployed on the basis of traffic.

Currently it has five caches of berms, adsorbents and pumps capable of containing up to 1,000 tonnes or cubic metres of product in the water.

The caches are located in Hay River, Tuktoyaktuk, Cambridge Bay, Exiled and Churchill. There are Coast Guard staff trained to use the equipment only at Hay River. In the other communities, non-coast guard personnel are trained to use the equipment, said J.J. Bracket, the Coast Guard's regional operations manager for environmental responses.

In the event of a spill, ice breakers, which also carry cleanup equipment, would be dispatched to the scene.

During the shipping season there is typically three ice-breakers in the eastern arctic and one in the west. Community-based responders would be backed up by Coast Guard staff flown into the area.

"This is what's appropriate for our exposure, given the current traffic," Bracket said.

"The Coast Guard is the pound of cure, not the ounce of prevention."