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Is the river moving yet?

Break-up preoccupies residents, makes for a good way to raise money

Derek Neary
Northern News Services

Fort Simpson (May 11/01) - Plenty of Fort Simpson residents are always willing to bet they know when ice on the Mackenzie River will break.

This year, Deborah McPherson and Jonas Norwegian were the break-up pool winners when the river shunted at 3:15 p.m. on Tuesday.

So what was the secret to their success? Scientific research? Traditional knowledge?

"I just took a wild guess," McPherson laughed. "I thought I picked 3 o'clock in the morning. Well, it worked anyway."

The time couldn't have worked out any better as it was during the afternoon coffee break, giving many people a chance to check out the situation, she added.

Break-up pools thrive in the community every spring, bringing a cash infusion for groups that need it. The "Nahanni Rafters" at Thomas Simpson school had two separate pools going this year. Each sheet had 720 two-minute blocks, based on a 24-hour clock -- that way the particular day doesn't factor in, just the time. It's usually a great fund-raiser, even though every square usually doesn't get sold.

"For some reason, it gets hard to sell the blocks on the edges," TSS principal Robert Byatt said. "People don't like buying the blocks at the edges."

Predicting the time is difficult enough, but the day when the river will break also tends to elude people.

Roger Pilling, who has been working with Water Surveys Canada since 1988, has come to know the local waterways fairly well over the past dozen years. Yet he never claimed to be a break-up prognosticator.

"I was saying a month ago my guess was May 4 at 4 o'clock," he said, adding that he and his co-worker, Gerry Wright, have never won a break-up pool.

"You just don't know. There's tons of variables ... it's a guessing game. No break-up is the same."