Territory's population slides as more move away
Chamber of Commerce calls for stronger government response as territory's economy gets 'soft'
Shane Magee
Northern News Services
Saturday, December 17, 2016
NWT
The Northwest Territories population has dropped slightly over the past year as the number of people moving elsewhere accelerated, estimates released last week indicate.
A graph showing changes to the population of the territory over three month increments between October 2012 and October 2016 indicating a fluctuating population up until this year when outward migration accelerated. - graph courtesy of NWT Bureau of Statistics
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The population overall grew by 62 over the first three months of this year, then began a downward slide with 19 lost between April and June and 265 more by Oct. 1, meaning there were 222 fewer people in the territory than when the year started. The territory's population fluctuates up and down throughout the year but has tended to end with slight growth.
The loss so far this year is mainly because more people left the territory than moved here, called migration.
"The population decrease was a result of a loss of 369 persons through migration, the greatest decrease the territory has experienced in the past 10 years," the NWT Bureau of Statistics stated in a regular release of population data compiled by its national counterpart, Statistics Canada.
The federal statistics agency in its report noted the Northwest Territories was the only jurisdiction in the country to see its population decrease in the period ending Oct. 1.
"The economy is soft," NWT Chamber of Commerce executive director Mike Bradshaw said when asked what was he believed was driving the shift.
The past year saw hundreds laid off when production ceased at the Snap Lake Diamond Mine, workforce cuts at other mines and corporate offices in Yellowknife. The GNWT also cut positions around the territory.
Bradshaw said about 25 per cent of small and medium-sized businesses in the territory have closed in the past few years.
The chamber expects an overall loss of 1,000 people by next year when factoring in job losses, people moving south for retirements and people moving to parts of the country with a lower cost of living.
Bradshaw reiterated a call for the territorial government to do more to attract and retain people, such as increasing financial aid for students.
"We have to do something," he said. "We have to do something to turn the ship around."
Population growth was a priority of the legislative assembly prior to the last election.
The previous government had set a goal of increasing the population by 2,000 people over four years to hit 45,550 by March 31, 2019.
The population Oct. 1 this year was just 143 higher than the same date two years ago.
The territory's cabinet was silent after the data was released. News/North was told both Premier Bob McLeod and Finance Minister Robert C. McLeod were not available for an interview.
How many people live here directly influences territorial finances because most of the territorial government's revenue comes from federal transfers that are based on population.
The Northwest Territories received $28,777 per person in the 2016-17 fiscal year, according to Finance Canada.
While the drops fits with a narrative of a sluggish economy, the figures are only estimates.
In 2015, similar preliminary data indicated a drop of 500 people between April 2014 and April 2015. The data was later revised by Statistics Canada to show a more rosy picture.
"The lower the level the population is, the harder it is to estimate," Andre Lebel, a demographer with Statistics Canada said in October 2015.
The estimate is based on several data sources from the territorial and federal governments, starting with the census and birth and death records. As more information becomes available, the estimates are revised.
"Those population counts are the best we can do with the information that we have at the time," Lebel said.
Population data from the 2016 census is expected to be released in February, giving a better picture of the territory's population.
The population change is happening as data indicates a shift in the territory's workforce.
For years the majority of people were employed in the private sector. Over the past several months, employment data from Statistics Canada indicates a majority of people now work in the public sector - whether by the federal, territorial, community or aboriginal governments.
