SOMBA K'E/YELLOWKNIFE
Yellowknife has received more snow than usual this winter but it remains to be seen how that will affect water levels in the Snare and Bluefish hydroelectric systems or the forest fire season this summer.

This vehicle shows the slightly higher-than-usual snowfall in Yellowknife this winter. According to Environment Canada, the city has received about five centimetres more snow than average since December. However, officials say precipitation over the next two months will likely dictate if extremely dry conditions in the NWT will continue this summer. - John McFadden/NNSL photo

That is according to Brian Proctor, a warning preparedness meteorologist at Environment Canada in Edmonton. While he said there are reasons to be optimistic about higher water levels and a less drastic forest fire season, he stressed the next couple months will be a waiting game that depends on later winter/early spring snowfall and the pace of spring melt.

Proctor is quick to point out that in January of both 2014 and 2015 there were much higher precipitation levels than average and substantially more than this year - yet because conditions became considerably drier as the year wore on, the NWT experienced extreme drought conditions.

That's why snow, freezing rain and rain received over the next two months will be crucial in dictating whether the territory breaks out of this latest drought cycle.

"That late winter snowfall can make a tremendous difference. If you look at 2014, precipitation was low in April and that set us up as we went into the year," Proctor said. "June was exceptionally dry in both 2014 and 2015."

Higher than average

Proctor said the Yellowknife area received almost 38 millimetres (nearly four centimetres) of precipitation in December - about twice as much as is normally seen that month. January, with 15.8 millimetres of precipitation, saw slightly more snow than usual while February had close to average snowfall readings with 12.8 millimetres. The average comes from the weather data which has been collected in Yellowknife over the past 74 years.

"Since the beginning of December, you have recorded about 51.8 millimetres (about five centimetres) of precipitation which is a surplus of 18.3 over the long-term normals for that period," Proctor said.

Several years of drought conditions have led to low water levels in the Snare and Bluefish hydroelectric systems which has reduced their capacity to generate power. That forced the territorial government to subsidize the Northwest Territories Power Corporation by about $50 million over the past two years because the corporation has had to rely on more diesel-generated electricity. Drought conditions also led to the worst forest fire season on record in the NWT in 2014. Some 385 fires burned more than 3.4 million hectares of forest. It cost the government more than $50 million to fight the fires. The forest fire season was better in 2015, but was still the second worst on record in terms of the amount of forest burned.

Proctor said that the speed with which the snow and ice melts will also affect how dry the ground will be this spring and summer.

"If it melts really quick and runs off then we don't gain the benefit of that moisture. That's what happened in the last two May and Junes," Proctor said.

Officials from both the power corp. and the department of environment and natural resources say it's at least a month too early for them to start making predictions about low water levels and the upcoming forest fire season.