SOMBA K'E/YELLOWKNIFE
There is a degree of good news about the forest fire risk and low water levels in the NWT this year. Environment Canada climatologist David Phillips has confirmed there has been more snowfall this winter than last, which he said should help on both fronts.

More snow pack this winter than last year may mean more moisture in the ground. That could cut down on forest fire risk and raise low water levels in the Snare Hydro System. - John McFadden/NNSL photo

A lower than usual snow pack got much of the blame for last year's tinder-dry conditions that led to one of the worst forest fire seasons recorded in the NWT and low water levels in the Snare Hydro system which led increased reliance on expensive diesel fuel to keep the North Slave Region powered up.

"The good news is that you actually got more precipitation since September than you did the year before," Phillips said. "The total snowfall to date has been 137 centimetres compared to 107 centimetres the year before."

He also said there's been about 25 per cent more precipitation since September, compared to the same period of time a year ago.

September was actually a little drier than normal, but October was a little wetter, Phillips said.

"It's good in the sense that having more snow cover, more moisture - means that one of those elements that contributed to the forest fire season is better this year than it was last year," he said. Phillips thinks the higher precipitation levels should mean that water levels shouldn't be as low as they were last year.

One of the worst droughts in the territory's history last summer led to record low water levels in the Snare system. That meant the Northwest Territories Power Corporation had to spend an average of $45,000 a day on diesel to power the Jackfish plant which generated power for the North Slave Region.

Environment and Natural Resources Minister Michael Miltenberger, also the minister responsible for the power corp., had expressed concerns about low water levels for this coming summer as recently as late January. At that time, he was still worried about another drought this summer meaning the diesel-powered Jackfish Plant would have to be used again.

Pam Coulter, manager of communications for power corp. stated in an e-mail water levels in the Snare system are currently the lowest they've been since 2004. The most recent snow survey of the area that feeds the Snare water system took place earlier this week and showed levels are about six per cent higher than average. Snow levels last year were about four per cent higher, Coutler stated.

Power corp. is cautiously optimistic that water levels will be closer to normal, but Coulter pointed out several factors affect the run-off that reaches Snare. They include a quick melt which leads to a good run-off or a slow melt where the sun helps evaporate the snow.

Coutler also stated that with water levels in the Snare are so low right now even with a good run-off, water levels may not return to normal until next year.

Residents can probably still expect to see about 20 centimetres of snowfall this year before the precipitation turns to rain later this spring, Phillips said.

It is also positive news that the temperature models for April show normal to slightly cooler than normal temperatures. That should make for a gradual snow melt, Phillips said.

"You still have about 36 to 38 centimetres of now on the ground which is normal for his time of year," Phillips said.

Part of the drought problems last year were created when temperatures were above normal in the spring which caused much of the snow and ice to evaporate into the air instead of melting into the ground which led to bone-dry conditions in the spring and summer.

The temperature models for the NWT for the summer at this point show it will likely be slightly warmer than normal so that extra precipitation accompanying this winter may come in handy, Phillips said.

"Going into the wildfire season the ground may be in a little better shape (moisture-wise) than it was last year," Phillips said. "But the only one who really knows is Mother Nature and she holds the trump card. What she is going to deliver over the next six weeks will be the trump card in terms of the forest fire season. The forest fire risk seems a little less this year than it did at this time last year."

Yellowknifers who noticed this winter didn't seem as cold as the last two winters weren't imagining things. The average temperature this winter in Yellowknife was -21.3 C according to Phillips, about one degree colder than normal. "But last year, if you look at the same period, the average temperature for November through March was -25.6 C," Phillips said. "That's four degrees difference and that is a lot." Yellowknife had 50 days this winter at -30 C or colder compared to 66 last year, Phillips said.

"You only had three days below -40 C (without the windchill factored in) this year compared to 13 of those days last year," Phillips said.