"If you look at the history, it's normally the third week in April before it shuts down, but that is always subject to weather.
"If we get a warming trend, we'll certainly see some deterioration," Kelly said.
The crossing, about one km long, is located at km 25 on the Yellowknife Highway and is the only exit from Yellowknife into Alberta.
Kelly said when the landings get rough and water builds up on the surface of the ice bridge, the road is nearing the end of its season.
According to DoT statistics, the earliest the road closed was April 12, 1996, the latest was May 5, 1966.
"It's primarily a judgement call by the staff in the South Slave who have been building and maintaining and monitoring that ice bridge for many years," Kelly said of when the road is no longer deemed passable.
Once the ice bridge does shut down, Kelly said between four to six weeks lapses before the ferry can operate.
This leaves Yellowknife road transportation cut off from the rest of Canada.
"We won't be able to get the ferry back in the water until the ice is gone from the river," he said. "And even then, there will be minor interruptions when ice comes down out of the lake. The ferry can't operate in any significant amount of ice."
Because the situation is a great inconvenience to travellers, Kelly said the department has been supportive in working closely with the community group in Fort Providence to have a bridge built over the river.