Sarah Holland
Northern News Services

NNSL (Sep 22/99) - Environment Canada recently released the fall forecast for Yellowknife, and the numbers look grim.

For the months of September, October and November, the temperatures are forecasted to be colder than normal. This means that September will be below the average temperature of 6.7 C, October below -1.4 C and November cooler than the normal -14.8 C.

The average fall temperature, obtained by combining the numbers throughout the three months, is -3.2 C.

But numbers can be deceiving, according to Patrick Kyle, a climate specialist with Environment Canada.

"Looking at the numbers doesn't tell you the whole picture."

Just look at our summer for example.

"Yellowknife actually had near normal temperatures for the summer, but because the past few years have been warmer than usual, it seemed like a poor summer for weather."

Another deceiving factor is that the mean monthly temperatures use the readings from the first of the month to the end of the month.

"There are cooling trends from the beginning to the end of the fall months," says Kyle.

And, like every good scientist, he's got proof.

The average temperature for Sept. 1 is 10.3 C, and 2.7 C for Sept. 30. Oct. 1 comes in at 2.9 C while Oct. 31 is -7.4 C. And the averages for Nov. 1 and 30 are -7.6 C and -19.4 C, respectively. The averages are taken between the daytime high and the daytime low.

So, although the average fall temperature is a balmy -3.2 C, by looking at each month individually, a different picture forms.

As for precipitation, Kyle says normal amounts will fall in Yellowknife, and most of it will be snow, especially by November.

In September, the average amount of precipitation is 24.8 millimetres of rain and 3.5 centimetres of snow. By November, the numbers are 0.6 millimetres of mostly freezing rain and 33.5 centimetres of the white stuff.

Canada as a whole has recorded its 15th warmest year on record, and this is the ninth season in a row where temperatures were above normal.