Richard Gleeson
Northern News Services

NNSL (Nov 02/98) - At some point in the future, Northerners may have to choose which they value more -- mining jobs or caribou.

A report released by Greenpeace last week says the decline of the Peary caribou of the western High Arctic islands, as documented in a recently released population survey, may be linked to greenhouse gas emissions.

Evidence mounting The link between greenhouse gases and global warming may never be proven absolutely, but the evidence supporting that connection continues to mount. Here are some sobering facts from Environment Canada: 1997 was the warmest year on record, 1998 will likely be warmer the 1990s are the warmest decade of the century the 20th century is the warmest century on record The difficulty for scientists is determining whether the warming trend is another of the natural climate changes to have occurred throughout history, or whether it's being driven by man. "The pattern of change -- where it is warming most and where it is cooling, fits very well with the modelling (of the changes being driven by greenhouse gases)," said Environment Canada science advisor Henry Hengeveld. "If you plug solar (natural) changes into the model, you don't get the same pattern." Hengeveld said if greenhouse gases are driving the changes, the North will warm faster than the lower latitudes. Environment Canada models forecast that the current warming trend will result in the Arctic Ocean warming by 5-10 C by 2040. Because of the affect of the Gulf Stream on the North Atlantic, it has more of a cooling affect than the Arctic Ocean, said Hengeveld. The western High Arctic, where the Peary caribou are dying, is likely to feel the effects of climate change more dramatically than the east. "(The warming trend) is becoming increasingly difficult to explain by natural causes," said Hengeveld. "But, we don't have absolute proof (warming is being driven by greenhouse gases) and I don't know if we ever will. That's just the nature of science."

Anne Gunn, the renewable resources caribou biologist who conducted the survey, said the Peary are dying because there has been more precipitation in their western High Arctic range.

The survey estimates the herd's numbers dwindled to 1,100 last year, from 24,320 in 1961. On Bathurst Island, where Gunn's research was based, the population dropped to 75 last year from 3,000 animals in 1990.

"The link that Greenpeace is making is that we are driving the change. There's a high probability that, indeed, is the case," said Gunn. "We looked at what factors are driving the decline and it looks like the winter weather caused this decline of Peary caribou," said Gunn.

Peary caribou feed on small arctic plants. To get to their food in winter, they must dig through the snow cover. In recent years, as higher winter temperatures cause more snowfall, that work has cost more energy than the plants provide.

The result of that energy equation is starvation.

Gunn emphasized her study was confined to the western islands of the High Arctic, noting the entire High Arctic includes five distinct climactic regions.

Greenpeace released its report on Gunn's study to pressure Canada's environment ministers to live up to the commitment known as the Kyoto Agreement.

Signed last year, the agreement committed Canada to reduce greenhouse gas emissions six per cent from 1990 levels by 2012.

In spite of the fact that it is predicted the NWT will feel the adverse effects of the damage caused by greenhouse gases, the North is in no position to be pointing fingers.

Ecology North and the Canadian Arctic Resources Committee estimate BHP and Diavik will combine to increase NWT carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas) emissions by 28 per cent over 1990 levels.

All evidence shows levels will continue to rise as both the Nunavut and GNWT consider opening the barren lands to mining with a road and deep sea port.

Environment ministers met last week in Halifax in preparation for a climate change conference in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

Co-chair of the summit was NWT Minister of Resources Wildlife and Economic Development Steven Kakfwi. Kakfwi was travelling last week and unavailable for comment.

In a joint press release issued by the ministers after the meeting, the Kyoto Agreement was not mentioned.