by James Hrynyshyn and Cheryl Leschasin
Northern News Services

NNSL (Aug 18/97) - Adapting to a changing climate won't be easy for many Northerners, according to a study of effects that scientists say are already under way in the Western Arctic.

The final report of the six-year Mackenzie Basin Impact Study concludes that animal and plant life, lakes and rivers, forests, industry and communities across the 1,8000,000 square-kilometre region face costly and, in some cases, dramatic changes in the coming years.

"The study is akin to a damage report of sort -- or future damage report," said lead researcher Stewart Cohen at a press conference last week in Yellowknife.

The ecosystem encompasses all lands draining into the Mackenzie River and includes the entire Western Arctic, portions of northeastern B.C., northern Alberta as far south as Jasper, northwestern Saskatchewan and the Yukon's eastern range.

A preliminary report produced last year at the conclusion of the study period noted that the average temperature of the region has increased by 1.5 C over that last century -- three times the global rate -- and is expected to rise by 4 or 5 C by 2050.

In fact, the severity of the observed changes in the region played a key role in the 1995 finding of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that for the first time linked global warming to human industry activity. The other deciding factor was similar changes in the Russian Arctic.

"Climate change will impact every single Canadian and every resident of the world," said federal Environment Minister Christine Stewart. "And other parts of the world affect us directly."

The 372-page, $950,000 final report warns that more research is needed before drawing conclusions about many of the expected effects of climate change. Some of the changes are already evident, however.

* Water run-off levels are expected to fall by seven per cent, although increases could occur in northeastern B.C. Most effects will be seen during winter months. Though rainfall will increase, faster evaporation rates will produce a net decline in water levels.

* More landslides along the Mackenzie River and Beaufort coast as a result of thawing permafrost, increased rainfall and more forest fires.

* In all future scenarios studied, the "fire weather index" rose, doubling the area burned and halving the supplies of commercial timber.

* Threats to wildlife will rise. Reports from aboriginal communities suggest that lower water levels in the Peace-Athabasca Delta, for example, have reduced the muskrat population to almost zero where once a healthy trapping industry was based.

* Caribou in the Bathurst herd north of Great Slave Lake could lose weight due to heavier snow cover in winter and increased numbers of mosquitoes in summer. As a result, some loss of income from sport hunting in the region is possible

* Some coastal communities will not be able to afford to move when erosion begins to threaten property.

Many of the predictions are based on computer models, but others are drawn from observations by scientists and aboriginal people. For example, Gwich'in observers report that grayling are becoming scarce in some lakes and burned forests are not regenerating as quickly as they once did.

In addition, a recent 11 per cent electricity rate surcharge is linked to lower water levels at Northern hydro dams that forced increased use of expensive fossil-fuel plants.

Great Slave Lake's water levels, meanwhile, fell to record lows in 1995. (Recent high water is a temporary result of a 1995 release of water stored at the Bennett Dam in northern B.C.)

The report also notes that only a global response to the cause of climate change -- the burning of fossil fuels -- will forestall some of the expected changes. Local action, though politically useful, will accomplish little.

"Increased local and regional control of land and water resources will help to reduce to the area's vulnerability and help local residents adapt to climate change. That, however, may not be enough to respond effectively to global warming," the report says.

"Regional stakeholders may need to intervene at national and international levels to warn others about the consequences to the Mackenzie Basin."

Kevin O'Reilly, research director for Canadian Arctic Resources Committee, said he hopes Ottawa takes the study seriously. "It will be interesting to see what commitment the federal government will provide to back it up,' said O'Reilly, pointing out that the government has already failed to meet greenhouse emission reduction targets set in 1992.

In addition to the federal, provincial and territorial governments, participants in the study included the Canadian Polar Commission, Gwich'in Tribal Council, Inuvialuit Game Council, Dene Nation and Metis Nation of the NWT.

Collectively, they spend almost $770,000 on research and another $180,000 on administration, travel and printing.